Ayman Nour and his party

The surreal scenes of yesterday captured the savage reality of politics in Egypt perfectly: Ayman Nour speaking to a massive crowd of journalists and supporters crammed into the burnt-out party office in Downtown Cairo, while riot police and plain-clothes security officers waited for a rumoured demonstration for "disappeared" party activist Hossam Shatata - from Nours party - that never took place. While party activists at the meeting expressed hopes that Nour's release would mark a turning point for Egypt and an opportunity to rebuild their party, real political parties are built by grassroots activists like Shahata, not single-handedly by leaders and public figures like Nour. As long as thugs can attack an opposition party headquarters and security agents kidnap its activists with impunity, it's impossible to speak of any real change in Egypt.

Ayman Nour's unexpected release

A few months ago the party headquarters of Hizb Al-Ghad in downtown Cairo was attacked and burnt by thugs led by the "pro-government" faction of Mustafa Moussa, while security forces stood back and watched. Then, just a week ago, the administrative court reversed a decision that had placed Moussa in control of the party. And today, Nour was unexpectedly released.

Not surprinsingly these sudden developments has led to speculations in media and blogs that Nour's release was "a gesture of goodwill to the Obama administration." Zeinobia writes: "The Washington Post was speaking from two days ago that Mubarak wanted to meet with Obama in the first 100 days and the White House put some conditions : The Release of Ayman Nour and the Return of Saad El-Din Ibrahim."

It's possible. Adding my own wild conspiracy theories to the speculations, I can't help but wonder if there is any relation between the release of Nour and the probable detention by state security of a party activist last week. Was the "disappearance" of Hossam Shahata some kind of revenge for the administrative court decision? Or a signal that even as Nour is released in order to appease Obama and easen the pressures for "reform", the security apparatus will persist in it's harassment of party activists in order to prevent al-Ghad from capitalizing on Nours release to broaden it's support base? Or (most likely) was the kidnapping just "business as usual," part of the daily routine repression that Obama is now going to ignore because one of thousands of political prisoners was released?

Update: More on Hossam Shahata.

The "disappearance" of Hossam Shahata

El-Badeel reported yesterday and the day before about the "disappearance" of Hossam Shahata, chairman of the local committé of Ayman Nour's al-Ghad party in Helwan. According to the reports, Shahata went to the public prosecutors office last Wednesday to file a complaint and ask for protection after state security raided his house in Helwan. He told friends that he was going to stage an open-ended sit-in and hungerstrike, but has not been heard from since. His car is reportedly still parked in the area.

The most disturbing part of this story is perhaps the fact that it took so long before it was even reported. Maybe because there is so much of this kind going on now that another disappearance is hardly noticed... Of course I don't read all Egyptian newspapers and blogs, so maybe I'm the only one that didn't notice. But al-Ghad is after all a party with a lot of media contacts, they should have been able to make a big fuss about this.